Economic Theory

Economics 570 

Summer II 2001

Lecture 3

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Chapter 5. Public Choice and the Political Process

I.Goals of this section

*Define and illustrate “public choice” in the political process

II.Major Points and Lecture Suggestions

A.Make sure students are aware of the simplifying assumptions made in most models ofpolitical equilibrium. The issue under consideration is single-dimensional. In most casesthe variable is the quantity of a pure public good to supply per year. Voters are assumed to know the tax per unit of the public good before deciding how to vote.

B.Students are very receptive to the definition of a political equilibrium as an agreement anthe level of periodic supply of a pure public good, given the collective choice rule andthe distribution of tax shares among voters.

C.Emphasize that a person’s most-preferred political outcome is the one for which thatperson’s tax share equals her marginal benefit from the public good: ti = MBi. In class point out that this is analogous to P = MBi for a private good. However, each consumer can adjust consumption to achieve the latter condition in a market. Political supply of pure public good under majority rule can result in some voters not achieving the formercondition. Point out that any voter’s most-preferred political outcome depends both on that person’s tax share and preferences.

D.The basic point you want to get across in class is that a political equilibrium depends oncertain important economic variables given the collective choice rule and voterpreferences. These include the distribution of marginal tax shares, the average andmarginal cost of the public good, and the distribution of benefits of the public good.

Note that the marginal tax rate is assumed to equal the average tax rate for all votersthroughout the chapter. In addition, for simplicity MC = AC for the public good.

E.Special Section on changing quality of life

The Elevator to Modernity

In the year--1995--the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the gross value produced in the United States by the average employed worker was about $56,970. A century ago--1895--historical statistics tell us that the gross value produced, divided by the number of workers, is some $14,150 measured at 1995 prices (and $408 when measured at 1895 prices). 

The average American worker produces some four times as much as a century ago according to this set of numbers, which roughly answer the question: 

"What would 1895's production be worth if we had it to sell today?"

But we are most interested in a different question: roughly, how much better is today's economy than that of a century ago in making what humans need and want? 

And simply valuing last century's goods at today's prices leaves out the important fact that we, today, produce a much wider range and quality of goods than a century ago. Anyone taken back in time to 1895 would feel cramped and harassed by the absence of so many of the goods and services we take for granted: no airplanes, limited telephones, no communications media or compact-disk players, limited prepared foods, no automobiles and no asphalt or concrete roads, no electrically-powered consumer durables.

Note: incorporates one-half percent per year increase in standard of living masked in Historical Statistics by failure of price indices to adequately take account of new goods, and new types of goods, the low estimate suggested by Alan Greenspan.

Source: Historical Statistics , draft versions of Economic Report of the President 1995.

How much does the expanded range of choice made possible by the inventions--new goods and new categories of goods--of the past century matter? If you try to duplicate in the past the capabilities we have today in the past, you fail. The capability of your compact-disk player--that of listening to, say, Don Giovanni in the evening in your home at whim--could not have been provided two centuries ago at any price.

Let me use Alan Greenspan's guess that the invention of new goods, new kinds of goods, and new features for old goods boosts our true standard of living by one-half to one and one-half percent per year: combining the fourfold multiplication in measured output per worker with the one-fifth decline in hours and the increase in the scope and range of goods and products, America as a society today is at least eight and perhaps as much as twenty-three times as wealthy as America a century ago. The average American today has a "real standard of living" higher than 999 out of every thousand Americans alive in 1895.

Perhaps the nineteenth century saw a doubling of real standards of living in the industrial core. Perhaps there was some progress not just in technology but in standards of living in the previous eighteen centuries of the Christian era--although I would not place high odds that the median Frenchman in the age of Louis XIV had a higher standard of living than the median Athenian at the birth of Christ.

Nevertheless, the difference between economic growth in any previous century and economic growth in the twentieth century is a large enough quantitative to invoke not just one, but several qualitative transformations. It is like the difference between climbing a ramp, and riding up the World Trade Center in an elevator.

Why has the twentieth century been so different from all previous centuries? Market economies have the standard advantages of giving manufacturers and traders every incentive to use resources most efficiently, and which have the additional advantage of providing that "sunset" for relatively inefficient organizations. Enterprises that are relatively inefficient cannot pay their bills, and vanish. 

This automatic weeding-out of inefficient organizations that fail the test of the market is so lacking where state enterprises draw on the general taxation or money-printing power of the state.

But markets alone do not generate the tenfold multiplication of human productive potential that the twentieth century has seen. 

Previous mercantile capitalisms, like Classical Athens, Sung dynasty China, Mediterranean Islam circa 1000, northern Italy in the late middle ages, or Augustan Britain have been relatively bright spots in human history. But they are only pale shadows of what we have seen this century.

If I had to lay odds on the necessary additional factors, I would bet on two: first, democracy; second, technological density.

Before our century, a productive mercantile economy was a goose that laid golden eggs--but there was always the temptation to squeeze the goose a little tighter to pay for a slightly greater degree of courtly splendor or a slightly higher military effort on whatever was the current active conquest frontier.

History is littered with the corpses of golden geese. The loss of control by a mercantile aristocracy to a military one, or to a despot, meant that the best days of the local mercantile economy were past.

Successful democracy changes the calculus. Courtly splendor and an overmighty military become of less interest and less urgency than keeping real wages, employment, and profits rising--for political parties that are either unlucky to catch an unfavorable wave of the business cycle or unskillful enough to disrupt economic growth vanish rapidly. Economic growth and market institutions certainly coexist with political despotism for a while,but there is good reason to doubt their long-term compatibility.

But we need "technological density" as well: research and development has to become an industry in itself, rather than an avocation of a few learned gentlemen reading papers before a Royal Society, to maintain the pace of invention and innovation that we now take for granted. Only the confluence of all three, market institutions, political democracy, and high technological density, could generate the economic revolutions ofthe twentieth century.

This is the proper central theme of twentieth century history: the pace of economic transformation--its causes, its implications for productivity, for the structure of employment, for the use of education, for the value of capital, for society and social order, for cultural events, for politics.

This is where a truly Marxist analysis could have been extremely powerful. For if there was ever an age in which changes in the material conditions by which humans produce and reproduce the necessities and conveniences of their life dominate every other sphere of human activity, it is the twentieth century.

The upward jump of productivity and wealth is not confined to the core of the world economy. In 1987, 97 percent of households in Greece, not usually considered one of the world's industrial leaders, owned a television set. In Mexico there was one automobile for every sixteen people, one television for every eight, one telephone for every ten.

Countries that Certainly Have Higher Average Standards of Living Today than the United States in 1900

Note: country averages have little meaning when applied to income distributions as unequal as those in Brazil, South Africa, or the Arabian peninsula. A higher estimate of the value for living standards of access to new technologies would expand the range of countries considerably.

Source: Historical Statistics , World Development Report 1994, author's calculations.

On our low estimate of the pace of growth in the twentieth century, some 44 countries today--from South Africa and Estonia to Botswana and Brazil, from Slovenia and South Korea to Japan and Switzerland--are as rich as or richer than the United States was a century ago. And the United States a century ago was a society with a level of wealth previously unseen in world history. On our high estimate of growth, not 44 but 76 countries are wealthier today than the U.S. was at the turn of the century.

The world's distribution of wealth, today, is probably more unequal than at any time in the past: the explosion of wealth in the industrial core carried them far above the four-plus billion below. But when future historians look back at the third world in the second half of the twentieth century, they will say that this was a period in which three billion humans climbed onto the escalator to modernity.